SW

What the Historical Beat-Rate and Drift Numbers Actually Mean

Across the last eight reported quarters, SW has beaten earnings consensus exactly once, for a 12% beat rate, and the average EPS surprise across those reports is -21.2%. Yet the average five-day price move in the five trading days after earnings is 0.91%, with the drift classified as “up.” That combination is the core trading signal: repeated misses have not reliably produced a large or lasting selloff.

The last four prints highlight the gap between first-session reaction and follow-through. On 2026-07-29, actual EPS of $0.35 missed the $0.4048 estimate by -13.5%, and the stock fell -1.53% the next day, then posted null% over the next five sessions. On 2026-04-30, a -16% miss ($0.33 vs. $0.3928) produced a +2.71% next-day move and an +8.44% five-day drift. On 2026-02-11, a -28.7% miss ($0.34 vs. $0.4769) rose +2.27% the next day but drifted -0.99% over five days. On 2025-10-29, a -14.7% miss ($0.58 vs. $0.68) led to a -4.76% next-day drop and -4.73% over five days. The takeaway is that the headline result has mattered less than how far the market’s real expectation moved relative to the published consensus.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the Next Report

SW is scheduled to report next on 2026-11-04 before the open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.685 and the stock at $46.76. Options expiring around that date will embed an implied earnings move, and because the historical average five-day post-earnings drift is only 0.91%, the options market may price a move larger than what has been realized on average if institutions expect a sizeable gap.

A disciplined read is to compare the cost of an at-the-money straddle against the average next-day and five-day moves and against the distance between price and the 50-day EMA of $44.41. Heavy call or put flow tells you where traders are paying premium, not which way the report will break. Sector context also matters: SW sits in Consumer Cyclical/Packaging & Containers, so macro inputs can widen or compress the implied move as the release date approaches.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches

Given the 1/8 (12%) beat rate and the -21.2% average surprise, an earnings-based strategy for SW is less about predicting a beat and more about measuring the market’s real expectation. Key levels include the 50-day EMA at $44.41 and the RSI at 54.4; a neutral RSI leaves room for either direction to be amplified if the report diverges from the unofficial consensus.

Because the last four quarters were all double-digit misses, a result near the $0.685 consensus could move the stock much differently than another wide miss. Risk-sizing should be informed by the historical next-day range of -4.76% to +2.71% and the modest average 0.91% five-day drift, rather than by a directional prediction alone.

For a deeper dive into institutional positioning, analyst revisions, and live options flow ahead of the November 4 report, explore the full institutional verdict on the platform. It adds the current context these historical figures need, without replacing your own risk management.